Risk on the decline as global credit growth slows: Fitch

Date: Friday, June 4, 2010
Author: Investment Executive

As credit growth has slowed in many countries over the past couple of years, macro-prudential risk is on the decline, too, reports Fitch Ratings.

In a new report released Thursday, the rating agency says that “last year’s slump in real credit growth, combined with only a mild forecast upturn this year, has started to reduce country macro-prudential risk.”

The firm reports that global credit growth slowed sharply in 2009, to an estimated 1% (in real terms for the median of all Fitch-rated sovereigns), compared to over 14% in 2007. This year, Fitch forecasts a slight pick-up in credit growth, but to a still-subdued 3%.

The slowdown has been most marked in developed countries and emerging Europe, it notes, which are the regions hardest hit by the credit crunch, and where median real credit growth contracted slightly last year.

The result of this slowing in credit growth is that Fitch’s macro-prudential indicator scores decline, particularly as previous years’ rapid credit growth, which peaked in 2007, now drops out of the new analysis period. For example, Canada also moves into a lower MPI category (from MPI 3 to MPI 1) due to the new analysis period moving one year later.

However, today’s report highlights two notable exceptions to the global credit slowdown -- China and Vietnam -- where last year’s surge in credit growth to over 30% in real terms in both countries, now moves them to the highest risk category (MPI 3). Fitch says that the MPI 3 reading for China in particular highlights increased concerns among its sovereign and bank analysts about the country’s excessive credit growth and deteriorating asset quality.

IE